Pakistan's Security Paradox

New Monograph: Pakistan’s Security Paradox

Countering and Fomenting Insurgencies

This monograph examines post-9/11 U.S.--Pakistan security relationship through the historical lens of Pakistan's national security strategy to counter and foment insurgencies. It also provides a framework to understand why and how states
foment insurgencies (FOIN).

Executive Summary

Complete Monograph

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Chapter I, Examining Pakistan’s Policies to Counter and Foment Insurgencies, provides a concise history of U.S.-Pakistan security collaboration, and outlines important trend lines which are essential to comprehending Pakistan’s national security strategy, and the chances of American victory over the Afghanistan-Pakistan insurgencies.

Chapter II, Pakistan: COIN and FOIN Theory and Praxis in Brief (1948-2001), details Pakistan’s national security policy using historical case studies that illuminate efforts to counter and foment insurgencies. The chapter also presents a model for fomenting insurgencies (FOIN) for Pakistan, but also relevant to other countries.

Chapter III, The COIN-FOIN Paradox (2002 to 2008): from COIN to FOIN and Back, gives a succinct review of Pakistan’s policy to selectively suppress and abet insurgents in the north and south of the Afghanistan-Pakistan border, with a particular focus on post 9/11 U.S.-Pakistan partnership. This chapter also highlights the paradigm shift in Pakistan’s national security in 2009 under duress from an expanding Pakistani Taliban.

Chapter IV: Policy Guidelines, New Realities, New Policies, provides broad policy recommendations for U.S. and Pakistani policy makers, in the areas of security, intelligence, public diplomacy, development, political reconciliation, governance, and constitutional reform.

This monograph was written to provide a nuanced look at the complex dynamics of Pakistan’s national security strategy and U.S.-Pakistan security relationship, and it should prove useful both to academics and policymakers interested in Pakistan.

This monograph is available at: https://jsoupublic.socom.mil/publications/jsoupubs_2009.php .

"Haider Mullick’s work is a must read for anybody who is still perplexed by Pakistan’s dual strategy of both countering and fomenting insurgencies. By carefully walking through the history and rationale of Pakistan’s strategic security policy, Haider provides his reader with a clear explanation of the points where U.S. and Pakistan interests intersect and where they diverge. Only by first understanding this paradox can we work resolve it and then to achieve the shared goal of a stable and, prosperous region."

-Ambassador Wendy Chamberlin

President, Middle East Institute

“Haider Mullick provides a comprehensive, thoroughly researched, and extraordinarily candid analysis of Pakistan’s history of both fighting and supporting insurgencies. His book should be a staple for those seeking to make sense of the extraordinary developments in Pakistan over the last several years. Mullick gives detailed background and insight into Pakistan’s experience in fighting militants in the tribal border areas, making the case that Pakistan is learning from past mistakes and has recently turned a corner in its battle against anti-state militants. He dispassionately explains the thinking behind Pakistan’s so-called “COIN-FOIN paradox.” But the costs of this strategy -- both in terms of blowback on Pakistani citizens who have suffered tremendously at the hands of terrorists and to the coalition efforts in Afghanistan -- are unmistakable and should serve as a cautionary tale for both Pakistani and American policymakers seeking to stabilize and strengthen the Pakistani state.”

-Lisa Curtis, Senior Fellow
The Heritgae Foundation