New Monograph: Pakistan’s Security Paradox

Countering and Fomenting Insurgencies 

This monograph looks at post-9/11 U.S.--Pakistan security relationship through the historical lens of Pakistan's national security strategy to counter and foment insurgencies. It also provides a framework to understand why and how states
foment insurgencies (FOIN).

Executive Summary

Complete Monograph

Chapter I, Examining Pakistan’s Policies to Counter and Foment Insurgencies, provides a concise history of U.S.-Pakistan security collaboration, and outlines important trend lines which are essential to comprehending Pakistan’s national security strategy, and the chances of American victory over the Afghanistan-Pakistan insurgencies.

Chapter II, Pakistan: COIN and FOIN Theory and Praxis in Brief (1948-2001), details Pakistan’s national security policy using historical case studies that illuminate efforts to counter and foment insurgencies. The chapter also presents a model for fomenting insurgencies (FOIN) for Pakistan, but also relevant to other countries.

Chapter III, The COIN-FOIN Paradox (2002 to 2008): from COIN to FOIN and Back, gives a succinct review of Pakistan’s policy to selectively suppress and abet insurgents in the north and south of the Afghanistan-Pakistan border, with a particular focus on post 9/11 U.S.-Pakistan partnership. The chapter also highlights the paradigm shift in Pakistan’s national security in 2009 under duress from an expanding Pakistani Taliban.

Chapter IV: Policy Guidelines, New Realities, New Policies, provides broad policy recommendations for U.S. and Pakistani policy makers, in the areas of security, intelligence, public diplomacy, development, political reconciliation, governance, and constitutional reform.

This monograph was written to provide a nuanced look at the complex dynamics of Pakistan’s national security strategy and U.S.-Pakistan security relationship, and it should prove useful both to academics and policymakers interested in Pakistan.

This monograph is available at: https://jsoupublic.socom.mil/publications/jsoupubs_2009.php .